Objectif Terre  | Au Nom de la Déesse-Mère

Objectif Terre | Au Nom de la Déesse-Mère

Le blog-notes d'Olivier Daniélo | Eco-SphèriToile-ité. La crise écologique est une crise de filiation | « Il faut encore avoir du chaos en soi pour pouvoir enfanter une étoile qui danse (...) Zarathoustra (Sosie d'Abraham) créa cette fatale erreur qu'est la morale ; par conséquent il doit aussi être le premier à reconnaître son erreur » (Friedrich Nietzsche) | « Chaos ne signifie pas désordre » (Ilya Prigoine) | « Mais nous n'avons pas de Père. Varie toute seule nous a mis au monde » (Vari Ma Te Takere, Chant de la création, île Mangaïa) | « Le mariage détruit les familles» (dicton des Mosos du Tibet) | « La solution communiste de ce problème est l’organisation matriarcale, qui est en même temps la forme la plus parfaite de vie en société puisqu’elle libère et unit tout le monde en faisant du corps social lui-même le centre et la garantie de la plus haute liberté individuelle. Le matriarcat ne connaît pas de limites ni de normes, pas de morale ni de contrôle en ce qui concerne la sexualité » (Otto Gross, psychiatre) | Ana Al Haqq | 2007-2017: 3.805.434 pages vues | Vous cherchez un article ? RDV sur google.fr: écrire ses mots clés suivis de l'opérateur site:electric-ecosystem.com | @ElectricEcosyst | Contact: olivierdanielo (at) gmail.com | Bio: https://sites.google.com/site/olivierdanielo/

+++++ Get Ready for Peak Oil Demand (Wall Street Journal)

Publié par Olivier D sur 28 Mai 2017, 19:02pm

+++++  Get Ready for Peak Oil Demand (Wall Street Journal)

Wall Street Journal

"(...) The world’s largest oil companies are girding for the biggest shift in energy consumption since the Industrial Revolution: After decades of growth, global demand for oil is poised to peak and fall in the coming years (...) timing when that peak in oil demand will materialize is one of the hottest flashpoints for controversy within the industry

It’s tough to predict because changes to oil demand will hinge on future disruptive technologies, such as batteries in electric cars that will allow drivers to travel for hundreds of miles on a single charge.

Hitting such a plateau would mark the first time that demand has declined even when economies are growing since Col. Edwin Drake jury-rigged a pipe to drill for oil in Pennsylvania in the late 1850s. Yet, for many companies and investors, the question isn’t whether this immense turning point will happen—it’s when.

Getting that timing right will separate the winners from the losers, and it has become a major preoccupation for energy economists and a flashpoint for controversy within the industry (...) Calling it accurately is high stakes for an industry sitting on trillions of dollars of crude-oil reserves.  (...)

The idea that electric vehicles and alternative forms of energy will increasingly displace crude oil is one that big-name investors are starting to ask about.  “We have lots of clients in the financial sector asking about peak demand,” says Linda Giesecke, research director at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm. “It’s because you have this threat of disruptive technology” such as electric vehicles, she says. “If it is disruptive, it will come fast. That’s why it’s so hard to forecast. (...)

Now, peak-oil theory has been turned on its head, and forecasting peak demand has taken center stage. Some companies, particularly European energy outfits, see the tipping point coming soon enough that they are talking about it publicly, and overhauling their long-term investment plans to accommodate a greater emphasis on natural gas and renewables (...)

Inside energy companies, strategists are building scenarios to consider questions that they can’t yet answer: Will cars drive themselves? Will governments tax carbon emissions at high enough rates to discourage fossil-fuel use? What kind of transit will a middle-class resident of Mumbai favor in the year 2035? And what kind of battery-technology breakthroughs could affect that choice between now and then?  

Outside of efficiency gains, which even peak-demand naysayers acknowledge are coming, the biggest “X” factor is how widespread electric-vehicle adoption will be. (...) Electric vehicles, self-driving cars and ride-sharing stand to further erode gasoline demand. The question is, how fast? That depends on batteries, many say. (...)"

=> C'est exactement sur ces thèmes que porte le présent blog Objectif Terre :-)

"Oil demand will peak 2021-2020 and will go down 100 million barrels, to 70 million barrels within 10 years. And what that means, the new equilibrium price is going to be $25"


+++++  Get Ready for Peak Oil Demand (Wall Street Journal)

That is the Catch-22 for oil producers: their best hope for continued demand growth is if prices stay at levels that put their profit margins and cash flows under pressure.



Articles récents